Regulations Risk Falling Behind the Curve: Here’s What Could Happen
Switching the Asia Pacific shipping fleet to pure ammonia fuel under current regulations could result in up to 600,000 additional premature deaths annually according to new MIT Study.
The latest report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) emphasises public health risks associated with using ammonia as a maritime fuel. Researchers across Asian countries and MIT call for stronger regulations and advancements in engine technology to mitigate these risks effectively.
The Asia Pacific shipping industry is increasingly exploring low-carbon alternatives to traditional fossil fuels to decarbonise the oceanic atmosphere. Ammonia has emerged as a potential solution, being touted for its low-carbon footprint.
However, the MIT study underscores that the combustion of ammonia releases harmful nitrogen oxides (N2O and NOx). These are potent greenhouse gases and significant air pollutants.
Besides, the study found that unburnt ammonia can escape engines and form fine particulate matter in the atmosphere, leading to severe health issues such as heart attacks, strokes, and asthma.
Author Anthony Wong from the MIT Center for Global Change Science cautions against labelling ammonia as a ‘clean’ fuel solely based on its carbon-free nature.
The study’s scenarios indicate that without new regulations, the widespread adoption of pure ammonia fuel could cause issues
He points out that while ammonia does not emit carbon dioxide (CO2), its combustion process releases other harmful pollutants. The study’s scenarios indicate that without new regulations, the widespread adoption of pure ammonia fuel could cause 681,000 additional premature deaths annually.
Wong admits “This scenario is extreme but serves as a stark warning about the potential dangers of ammonia emissions.”
To explore safer alternatives, the researchers designed scenarios involving two types of ship engines: one that burns pure ammonia and another that co-combusts ammonia with hydrogen.
The latter approach showed promise in reducing health risks by improving combustion efficiency and optimising catalytic converter performance. Even without new regulations, co-combusting hydrogen with ammonia could potentially reduce the number of premature deaths to 80,000 annually, which is 20,000 fewer than those currently attributed to maritime shipping emissions.
The study also examined various policy scenarios, including current regulations that limit NOx emissions in specific regions, adding ammonia emission limits over Northern and Western Asia, and implementing global NOx and ammonia emission limits.
The findings suggest that with stronger global regulations and cleaner engine technology, the number of premature deaths caused by air pollution from shipping could be reduced by about 66,000.
Addressing the importance of developing policies alongside new technologies
MIT Professor Noelle Selin, from the Institute for Data, Systems and Society and the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS), highlights the importance of developing policies alongside new technologies. Selin notes that while ammonia is a potent benefit for both climate and air quality, this potential can only be realised if regulations address the full range of impacts.
The statements from the experts and researchers underscore the necessity of balancing innovation in alternative fuels with stringent regulatory measures to protect public health and the environment.
The shipping industry is urged to adopt comprehensive strategies that include proper planning, installation, and maintenance, along with advanced gas detection systems, to ensure the safe use of ammonia and other alternative fuels in the energy transition.
This serves as a critical reminder of the importance of rigorous safety measures and regulatory frameworks in adopting new technologies. As the world moves towards a more sustainable future, ensuring the safety and health of the population remains paramount.
