IEA Report Highlights Hydrogen’s Potential for SAFs by 2050
A recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted the pivotal role that green hydrogen will play in producing sustainable aviation fuels (e-SAF) by 2050.
The Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 report, published by the IEA, outlines how the growth in electrolyser capacity could significantly support green hydrogen-based aviation fuel production, driven by global policies and advances in renewable energy infrastructure.
Global electrolyser capacity for green hydrogen
According to the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), global electrolyser capacity could reach over 320 GW by 2050, enabling the production of nearly 40 million tonnes of hydrogen annually.
Nearly 40% of this capacity will be used for the production of synthetic fuels for the aviation sector. This trend aligns with global efforts to decarbonise aviation and meet the rising demand for cleaner fuel alternatives.
Role of REFuelEU aviation policy
The report highlights the REFuelEU Aviation policy as a “major driver” for the increase in e-SAF demand. This policy mandates that aviation fuel suppliers provide a minimum of 2% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) at EU airports by 2025, aiming to reach 70% by 2050.
However, under the STEPS, only one-sixth of the anticipated 120GW of electrolyser capacity for aviation fuels is expected to be installed.
Investment trends across Asian regions
The IEA anticipates that other Asian regions with advantageous hydrogen production conditions, either through policy incentives or the availability of affordable renewable energy, will attract significant investment in electrolyser capacity.
The report projects that India and China will lead with approximately 55% of electrolyser installations by 2050, followed closely by the US and Middle East at 24% each. Central and South America are expected to contribute 10%, Africa and Europe each approx at 7%.
Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) forecast
Under the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), the global demand for low-emissions hydrogen could reach up to 260 million tonnes by 2050, with 80% of this production expected to come from electrolysis.
The APS projects that the transport sector will account for two-thirds of this demand, particularly for maritime fuels, which alone may require over 500 GW of electrolysis capacity worldwide.
Other sectors such as industry, refining, and power generation are also expected to utilise significant portions of green hydrogen.
Liz Rowsell, Chief Technology Officer at Johnson Matthey (JM), emphasised the importance of regulatory support for SAFs. In a press meeting on the new ventures of Hydrogen, Rowsell stated: “If regulated and price-guaranteed, SAFs are a great way to pull through some demonstration technology that we need for renewable hydrogen.”
The report mainly showcases the growing importance of green hydrogen in achieving sustainable aviation and transport goals by 2050. With global investments in electrolyser capacity accelerating and regional policies shaping demand, the path forward for green hydrogen is promising.
The increased focus on SAF production for aviation, particularly in regions with abundant renewable resources, signals a major shift towards a cleaner, hydrogen-powered future in the aviation sector.
